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  • Page 14 of 22 FirstFirst ... 41213141516 ... LastLast
    Results 131 to 140 of 217
    1. #131
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      Daily analysis of USDX for May 23, 2018

      The index managed to make a retracement from the Monday's highs, but the 200 SMA remains as a dynamic support in the short-term, where also it has formed a fractal. We should remind that a breakout above 94.10 can open the doors for a testing of the 94.88 level. However, a breakout below the 200 SMA on H1 chart should strengthen the bearish bias.



      H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.10 / 94.88
      H1 chart's support levels: 93.12 / 92.33

      Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.10, take profit is at 94.88 and stop loss is at 93.30. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    2. #132
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      Euro and pound fall due to weak data

      Data released in the first half of the day on the economy of the euro area and the UK exerted serious pressure on the euro and the British pound, allowing US dollar buyers to further increase their long positions before the publication of the Federal Reserve's protocols, from which many are waiting for signals in the direction of further interest rates .

      In the first quarter of this year, the unemployment rate in France rose, indicating a slowdown in the recovery of the euro-zone economy in 2018. According to the report of the statistics agency Insee, the unemployment rate in France in the first quarter of this year rose to 9.2% from 9.0% in the fourth quarter of last year. This happened because of a sharp slowdown in the economy earlier this year.

      The euro collapsed after a report came out indicating that the growth of business activity in the euro area in May this year, contrary to all forecasts of economists and ECB representatives, slowed for the fourth consecutive month.

      According to a report by research company IHS Markit, the preliminary composite index of supply managers for the euro area in May 2018 was 54.1 points, while economists expected the index to be at 54.8 points.It is important to note that a value above 50 points still indicates an increase in activity.



      This slowdown is not surprising. For example, in Germany, the preliminary index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in May fell to 56.8 points against 58.1 points in May, while it was projected at 57.5 points. The index for the service sector fell to 52.1 points in May against 53.0 points in April.

      In general, the composite PMI of Germany dropped to 53.1 points in May, while in April of this year, it was at the level of 54.6 points.

      France too, failed to please with good results.

      The preliminary composite index of supply managers of the PMI of France fell to 54.5 points in May against 56.9 points in April this year.

      As noted above, the British pound went to update the monthly lows paired with the US dollar after it became clear that the annual inflation in the UK in April this year dropped to the lowest level in more than a year.

      According to the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose only by 2.4% in April this year compared with the same period last year. In March, growth was at 2.5%.

      The main reason for the decline in prices, as noted in the ONS report, is the drop in prices for air tickets.

      All the data fully coincided with the forecast of economists.

      The reaction of the Bank of England, most likely, will not take long. In the near future, representatives of the Central Bank will make a number of statements, based on today's data, and most likely, they will not like the buyers of the British pound slightly.

      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    3. #133
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      Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 25, 2018



      EUR/NZD is now in its final stages of the wave c/ of ii/. Ideally, we will see a minor dip closer to support near 1.6806 before the wave ii/ is complete, but we would not be surprised to see a premature low form for a new rally higher through minor resistance at 1.6958 and, more importantly, above resistance at 1.7061 confirming that the wave iii/ higher to test important resistance at 1.7300 is developing.

      R3: 1.7061
      R2: 1.6981
      R1: 1.6958
      Pivot: 1.6915
      S1: 1.6883
      S2: 1.6846
      R3: 1.6806

      Trading recommendation: We are looking for a EUR-buying opportunity at 1.6815 or upon a break above 1.6960.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    4. #134
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      Trading Plan for EUR/USD for May 28, 2018



      Technical outlook:

      The EUR/USD pair finally looks to stage a counter trend rally towards the 1.1950/1.2050 levels from here. In the immediate short term outlook, the pair should be looking to take out the 1.1750 levels, which is short term resistance. Then expect a dip towards the 1.1670/80 levels, before the counter trend rally gains further momentum higher. Please note that the 0.382 fibonacci resistance is seen at the 1.1940/50 levels as projected here. Immediate price support is seen at the 1.1500 levels, which should be the next potential target for bears. Now looking into the wave counts, the EUR/USD pair is still progressing into its 3rd wave of a lesser degree and is expected to carve the wave 4, before dropping lower into the wave 5 within the wave (3) as depicted here. Selling on rallies remains a preferred trading strategy for now.

      Trading plan:
      Aggressive traders may initiate longs around the 1.1675/1.1700 levels going forward; while conservative traders may remain flat for now and look forward to sell again between the 1.1930 and 1.2050 levels respectively.

      Fundamental outlook:
      There are no major events lined up for the day.

      Good luck!

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    5. #135
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      Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 29, 2018



      The rally from 127.11 became much smaller than we expected and the following break back below 127.11 shifted our count back to the prior preferred count calling for a decline to 125.32 before a possible low of the wave C and (E) is in place.

      Short-term resistance is seen at 127.28 and a clear break back above here will be the first indication of a low being in place, but only a break above resistance at 128.54 will confirm that the wave (E) has bottomed and a new long-term rally is starting to develop.

      R3: 128.54
      R2: 127.71
      R1: 127.28
      Pivot: 126.93
      S1: 126.49
      S2: 125.80
      S3: 125.32

      Trading recommendation: We bought EUR at 127.75 and was stopped out shortly after for a loss of 70 pips. We are looking for a new EUR-buying opportunity, but for now we will only buy upon a break above 127.28.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    6. #136
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      Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 30, 2018



      The break below the important support at 1.6670 was unexpected and has forced us to shift our long-term count. This new count still favors a bullish outlook, but sees a very complex corrective structure in the wave ii. From the peak of the wave i at 1.7099 in early February, a double corrective combination has been seen. First, a flat correction as the wave W and then a expanded flat as the wave Y to complete the wave ii. Either the wave ii is complete or very close to completing near after a final spike to just below 1.6653.

      In the short-term, a break above the minor resistance at 1.6786 and, more importantly, a break above 1.6903 will confirm that the wave ii has completed and a new impulsive rally in the wave iii is developing above 1.7300.

      R3: 1.6903
      R2: 1.6828
      R1: 1.6786
      Pivot: 1.6710
      S1: 1.6653
      S2: 1.6642
      S3: 1.6607

      Trading recommendation:
      Our stop at 1.6665 was triggered for a loss of 150 pips. We will be looking for a new buying opportunity, but waiting for a break above 1.6786.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    7. #137
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      Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 31, 2018

      Wave ii/ likely saw a low with the test of 1.6624. We still need to see a break above the resistance-line near 1.6734 and more importantly a break above minor resistance at 1.6764 to add confidence in our view that a low likely is in place. As long as minor resistance at 1.6764 is able to cap the upside, we could still see another attack towards the downside, but the downside potential seems very limited from here.

      A break above minor resistance at 1.6764 will target the more important resistance at 1.7062 and above here will confirm that wave iii/ to above 1.7300 is developing.

      R3: 1.6903
      R2: 1.6829
      R1: 1.6764
      Pivot: 1.6705
      S1: 1.6683
      S2: 1.6656
      S3: 1.6624

      Trading recommendation:
      We will buy a break above minor resistance at 1.6764 and if done place our stop at 1.6620.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    8. #138
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      The trade war holds the

      The Australian dollar was marked by an impressive spurt due to an increase in global appetite for risk after the release of data on the US labor market, the release of strong statistics on retail sales and optimistic forecasts of the OECD. The authoritative organization believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin to raise the main interest rate at the end of 2018 against the background of acceleration of average wages and inflation. GDP will grow by 2.9% this year and by 3% next year, unemployment will decrease to 5.4% in 2018 and to 5.3% in 2019. OECD believes that the main reasons for strong economic growth in Australia will be favorable the conjuncture of the commodity market and strong external demand.

      The optimism of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development is not shared by the futures market, which, on the contrary, has shifted the expectations of the first increase in the cash rate since 2016 from the current 1.5% to the second half of 2019. Along with unfavorable internal factors in the form of sluggish labor and inflation, leaving much to be desired (unlike the main developed countries, unemployment in Australia is far from full employment (5%), investors are apprehensive about the trade wars, the rise in the cost of borrowing in the United States and the Italian political crisis. The shift in the timing of the start of the normalization of the monetary policy of RBA, along with the worsening global appetite for risk, put pressure on the Australian dollar.

      Dynamics of MSCI EM and the probability of increasing the cash rate



      One of the main problems of the "Aussie" is connected with the growth of the yield of US treasury bonds against the background of expectations of raising the Federal Reserve rate on federal funds to 2.5% within 12 months. This circumstance, coupled with the unwillingness of the RBA to change anything in the field of monetary policy, allows Morgan Stanley to recommend its clients to sell the AUD/USD. The yield differential between the 10-year Australian and American bonds is -15 bp, with an average value of the indicator for the last five years at +68 bpts. Such a situation on the debt market deprives the "Aussie" of support from carry traders who prefer to invest in assets of developing countries.

      Additional pressure on the "Aussie" poses the risks of a trade war. The US is going to pause it, then revive the idea of import duties on steel and aluminum due to the intractability of its trading partners from Canada, Mexico and the EU, they openly shout about military actions. Donald Trump on his Twitter account said if you one $800 billion annually, there is no point in fearing a trade war. Under US pressure, China could reduce purchases of goods and services from Australia, which will negatively affect its economy. However, short-term strong statistics on retail sales, GDP and moderate optimism of the RBA may contribute to the correction of AUD/USD.

      Technically, the return of the pair's quotations to the boundaries of the long-term upward trading channel will increase the risks of implementing the Bat pattern with a target of 88.6%.

      AUD/USD, daily chart



      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    9. #139
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      The growth of the UK economy resumed

      Weak data on the euro area in the first half of the day hurt the European currency, which again failed to gain the right move to get beyond the large resistance levels paired with the US dollar, which were formed yesterday.

      The report on the budget deficit of France partially supported the euro only.

      According to the data, the budget deficit of France for the first four months of this year decreased compared to the same period in 2017.

      Thus, the budget deficit amounted to 54.3 billion euros at the end of April this year against 57.9 billion euros at the end of April 2017.

      As noted in the report of the Ministry of Finance, the deficit was reduced as a result of a sharp decrease in costs, as well as the recapitalization of energy companies. It should be noted that tax revenues have also decreased. As I noted above, retail sales in the euro area were the main reason for the decline in the European currency in the first half of the day.

      According to the data, in April of this year, retail sales in the euro area grew by only 0.1% compared to March, where data were revised up to a growth of 0.4%. Compared to the same period in 2017, retail sales grew by 1.7% against growth by 1.5% in 2017. A weak sales report is likely to affect the eurozone's GDP in the second quarter of this year, which will have a negative impact on the European currency in the medium term.

      Today, for the first time, a new Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, delivered a speech before the senate, who said that the main economic indicators will be achieved not through a strict economy, but through economic growth, which will also reduce public debt.

      Conte also said that Italy will introduce a minimum hourly wage and universal basic income. He also noted that the taxation system will be simplified and become fairer.

      As for the technical picture, it did not change much in comparison with the morning forecast. The pressure on the euro is maintained, which gradually returns the trading instrument to important levels of support in the area of 1.1620.

      The British pound grew strongly against the US dollar after a report that showed that activity in the UK services sector grew in May this year, giving a good boost to economic growth after weakening at the beginning of the year.



      According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers for the service sector in May rose to 54.0 points from 52.8 points in April. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

    10. #140
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      Gold monitors the Fed

      Having closed in the red zone for two months in a row, gold begins to rise from the ashes amid increasing rumors that the 6-week US dollar rally has come to an end. The escalation of trade tensions with China, Mexico, and Canada on the part of Washington testifies to the interest of the US administration in the weakness of its own currency. It was such speculation in the market during the height of the trade wars in the 1990s and 2000s that lowered the USD index by 20% and 12%. According to TD Securities, already in the fourth quarter of the precious metal will exceed the mark of $ 1400 per ounce, which was last seen in 2013. The company forecasts an average price of $ 1375 in October-December.

      Dynamics of gold and dollar



      The gradual decline in political risks in Italy after the announcement of the new Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte that the issue of the republic's exit from the eurozone is not on the agenda, as well as rumors about China's readiness to increase US imports of agricultural and energy goods by $ 70 billion in response to the abolition of tariffs The US reduced the demand for safe haven assets. Does not find gold support and in the physical asset market. According to authoritative sources Bloomberg, who wished to remain anonymous, purchases of precious metals by India in May fell to 77.6 tons (-39% m / m). According to the results of the third month of the spring of 2017, imports amounted to 126.2 tons. In January-May of this year, the figure fell to 289.3 tons (-42% y / y). One of the reasons is the weakness of the rupee, which has depreciated by 5% against the US dollar since early 2018. Dynamics of gold in rupees and dollars



      However, if during the rest of the year the world economy synchronizes its growth, including thanks to the restoration of GDP in the eurozone, then the forces of dollar "bulls" will begin to melt before our eyes, which will support both rupee and Indian imports. An indicative example is the second half of 2017, when talks about the normalization of monetary policy by central banks-competitors of the Federal Reserve made from the American currency an outsider G10.

      It is possible that the gold could rush up after the euro got rid of political chains already now, however, the offensive movement of the bulls on XAU / USD is holding back the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 13. The futures market gives a 94% probability of raising the federal funds rate to 2%, and precious metals traditionally fall before the historic meetings of the Fed, so that after them, take off thanks to the implementation of the "sell on the rumor, buy on facts" principle. Judging by the actual for 2016-2017 templates, it makes sense to form long positions on gold immediately after the announcement of the verdict of the Federal Reserve.

      Technically, the "bulls" leave no attempts to withdraw quotes from the descending channel, take the resistance by $ 1302 per ounce and activate the "Crab" pattern. If they succeed, the chances of achieving a target of 161.8% will increase. It corresponds to $ 1,350. On the contrary, a successful support test at $ 1,288 will open the way for the "bears" to the south as part of the "Expanding Wedge" pattern. Gold, daily chart

      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

      Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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